Jim Marshall is worried

September 24, 2010 By Erick Erickson

Full disclosure up front: I’m a fan of Austin Scott and have encouraged RedState readers to support him. That does not distract from the fact that the battle for the 8th Congressional District became an anomaly last week. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released an internal poll showing Jim Marshall ahead by 12 points. It is exceedingly rare in this election cycle for the DCCC to release an internal poll. Doing so shows a level of panic about this race and a desire to change expectations. The poll is also disconnected from reality.

We know the poll is disconnected from reality because of Marshall’s last two mid-term elections. He beat Calder Clay by roughly 1 percent in 2002. He beat Mac Collins by roughly 1 percent in 2006. In 2008, the high water mark for Democratic turnout with Barack Obama at the top of the ballot, Marshall only beat Rick Goddard by about 14 percent of the vote.

For a poll to show Marshall ahead of Austin Scott by 12 points in an anti-incumbent, anti-Washington, anti-Democrat year in a congressional district that already leans Republican is sheer fabrication. It also does not correspond to any of the nonpartisan polls, what few there are, and a variety of other unreleased internal polls out there.

Things are terrible for Democrats this year. In New York, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is only one point ahead of a Republican no one has ever heard of. In Wisconsin, popular Sen. Russ Feingold is behind his Republican challenger. In California, Carly Fiorina and Barbara Boxer are neck and neck. If Democrats are having that much trouble in blue states, it is less than convincing to produce a poll showing Marshall 12 points ahead in a Republican-leaning congressional district.

Marshall has bigger problems though. Left-wing interest groups find him useless because of his votes. Right-wing interest groups find him useless because of his party affiliation. Marshall stands in the middle mostly a man alone. Typically that is a fantastic position to be in. He can tout his independence.

This year, however, Republicans want to take back the House of Representatives. It will be races like Marshall’s where Republicans who like him will have to abandon him to get rid of Nancy Pelosi. That Marshall is already out attacking Scott is another sign Marshall gets it and is panicked.

Scott is an attractive candidate from an area of the district not normally involved. Marshall’s other challengers have typically come from the Middle Georgia area. Scott lives in the southern part of the district. A conservative legislator who has an independent streak and a willingness to speak his mind — a right-of-center Jim Marshall in a sense — Scott has the advantage of being a fresh face with an “R” next to his name.

The biggest challenge for Marshall is going to be Robins Air Force Base. As I’ve noted before, Robins has two major competitors in the BRAC Commission reviews: Tinker Air Force Base is in the 4th District of Oklahoma and Hill Air Force Base in the 1st District of Utah. Both are represented by Republicans. If the GOP does take back the House, as is likely, having a Democrat representing Robins becomes a liability to Robins.

I have said for several years that this would be Marshall’s most difficult election cycle. It is shaping up to be a doozy, not just for him, but for Democrats everywhere. A year ago, Time magazine declared Republicans an “endangered species.” My, my — how times change.

Erick Erickson is a Macon City Councilman and CNN contributor.

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